Long take: Nolan/Zimmer’s Dunkirk, consummate suspense flawed by red herrings

Hans Zimmer’s ominous Shepard tones come packaged with an hour’s worth of 70mm film stock and era-authentic props in Nolan’s long-awaited Dunkirk. Ticking in synchrony with the viewers’ pulse, Zimmer imposes quick and resonant orchestration that reverberates through the action in the cockpit and on the beachhead. There are debts owed to Hitchcock.

The opening scene is set by overlaid typescript. They are stranded, and hoping for deliverance, reads the text. They are looking for a miracle, looking for home. “Home”. Like that, we have a central motif—but is Home really what we’re waiting for? Swap out a consonant and you’ve got an answer: hope is the most elusive, and desired, element involved. Hope and hopelessness weigh on the minds of each character in spades, while they’re connection to home seems distant, unassuming, or trivial.

That the lack of exposition gave us protagonists-as-blank-slates was fine. Major historical events shouldn’t squander valuable $400/minute film stock just to do us the favour of explaining Harry Styles’ backstory or bother bringing us up to speed on the development of the European theatre. The only point worth making is made effortlessly: invasion is imminent.

Continue reading “Long take: Nolan/Zimmer’s Dunkirk, consummate suspense flawed by red herrings”

Long take: Nolan/Zimmer’s Dunkirk, consummate suspense flawed by red herrings

Aronofsky’s ‘mother!’, a failure of biblical proportions

Darren Aronofsky’s latest feature, mother!, stays true to its vision as a retelling of the stories of the Bible, although not with half the intelligibility of his previous effort, Noah (14). Despite compelling performances from Javier Bardem, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Ed Harris, mother! suffers from a sloppily executed and overly ambitious narrative that treats its audience to an obscure reading of Sunday School curricula. It’s not that the film is held back by its aspirations, but rather that it struggles to depict a clear-headed and lucid progression of those Biblical events that needlessly occupy its subtext.

After its screening on Monday morning at the Toronto International Film Festival, the 48 year old filmmaker took to the stage to fumble out a justification for the film’s grandiose and sometimes incoherent direction. On first viewing, it appears more as a generic commentary on pregnancy, ostensibly as a metaphor for the impunity with which we treat our mother(!) Earth. Aronofsky’s explanation affirmed this suspicion, but managed to render the entire film yet even more inarticulate by revealing his directorial intentions: to depict the fall of man and the advent of Jesus Christ. In retrospect, this revelation adds nothing to the movie’s impact except further convince the viewer of its banality. What results is a punishing rehash of a universally familiar story made superficial.

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Aronofsky’s ‘mother!’, a failure of biblical proportions

Exploring the agent/process problem in international negotiation

How do power asymmetries and domestic influences effect the course and outcome of international bargaining? The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) most recent round of multilateral negotiations have suggested an answer to this question in its struggle to continue the economic liberalization process. Known as the Doha Development Round (“Doha Round”), substantive talks began in November 2001 and reached a stalemate in 2008, in which rising powers and developed countries failed to settle an agreement on the scope, modalities, and aims of the negotiations on agriculture[1].

The following analysis seeks to expose the theoretical basis of the Doha Round and its failures by examining the events primarily through the lens of William Zartman’s model of process and implementation. For the purposes of this study, I will specifically examine the bargaining relationship between the developed and developing country coalitions on the issue of agriculture liberalization. Where process analysis fails to account for the intricacies and dynamics of state actors, I will insert W. M. Habeeb’s theory on issue-specific bargaining power as well as Robert Putnam’s model of two-level games. Using the Doha Round as a case study, I will contend that general theories of process as espoused by Zartman fail to capture the complexities and difficulties of multilateral negotiation in an intergovernmental context. In order to fully realize this, factors at both the structural and domestic levels must be considered.

Continue reading “Exploring the agent/process problem in international negotiation”

Exploring the agent/process problem in international negotiation

The Unfinished: Storytelling as Political Necessity

 

St. James Park was once a yurt village that I was never allowed to stay the night in. Having lived within commuting distance of Toronto at the time, I would board the GO Bus to Union Station for $7.70 on Saturday afternoon, and not return home until the last bus took off for the Newmarket Terminal at 12:50 the next morning. The Occupy movement was in full swing that October, and their weekend general assemblies would galvanize hordes of students, activists, champagne socialists, trade unionists, counter-culturalists, direct actionists, occupiers of all tax brackets and socioeconomic strata, some donning overalls, others in suits and ties, myself somewhere lost among them. Sometimes I still hear “We are the 99 percent” ring in my ears while standing in line at the grocery store checkout, watching the cashier scan the barcodes of off-brand boxes of breakfast cereal.

The ninety-nine percent. This rallying cry would become my first political schema: a cognitive constraint that enlisted myself against the one percent who were responsible for the injustices suffered by the other ninety-nine. I took on an identity shared by my other class-conscious compatriots muddling around a gazebo and a megaphone. E pluribus, unum.

We were the protagonist of our own rebellion story, standing in solidarity against the amorphous villain whose high-rise cast a shadow on our revolution. The tensions, fears, and uncertainties of the recession finally ripened the social climate for the change we needed. People were angry, motivated by principles of social justice, fairness, and egalitarianism.

And then winter came, and it quickly occurred that this story was unfinished by design. There were no goal posts, no agreed upon objectives, no bargaining units, no specific demands, and no structured ending. A story without termination is a story without structure, and without structure a story’s substance can wear away—becoming only incoherent, neglected symbols in a void. This would become Occupy’s fatal flaw. Their hyper-egalitarian “one voice” philosophy precluded any semblance of order and individual leadership that would have otherwise been conferred upon the movement. No clear goals were effectively communicated, no names were named. There were calls to action without plans of action.

Though the storyboard was properly fit with well-defined characters, themes, a central conflict, and an appropriate setting. What was missing was a plot, a central course of events that bring the characters to some sort of resolution. Without these, stories lose their grip, squander their momentum, and fail to set the gears of storytelling into motion.

The demise of the Occupy movement can be explained by its distinct lack of message control—when this narrative is lacking, so too the most central element of one’s story. Andrew Gelman and Thomas Basbøll recognize this element’s role in structuring human cognition and communication. They draw from work in cognitive science that holds that our understandings of the social world, and indeed of the self, are thought about in terms of “story-like causal relations” [1]. However, any old story won’t do. When stories work, their message is marked by two qualities: immutability and anomalousness. This holds that they must depart from prior explanatory models and their maxims must be developed well enough that critics can locate their flaws. That is, it is better to tell a story built upon potentially unrepresentative, but original maxims, than to fail to craft a story at all. This is true of both our social scientific understanding of the world, and our everyday lived-in experience of the social world: both are equally motivated by our natural inclinations to etch, ingrain, and retell stories that make sense of the symbolic and experiential stuff of life.

The immediate point of the Occupy story is that there wasn’t much of a story at all. Its incompleteness stunted its satisfaction of Gelman and Basbøll’s immutability condition. I didn’t realise until years later, but Occupy gave me a political map that, while being to-scale and easy enough to find myself within, was lacking a compass—missing a sort of north arrow with which to guide one’s orientation in the world. Likewise, an orientation that can be questioned, falsified, or challenged by a rival cartographer. The map, so it turned out, was useless in doing anything aside from discovering myself on its topographic field. Yet this only serves half of a good map’s function.

Today, the social engineers behind political messaging are equipped with ‘big data’, detailed personal statistics of vast complexity, that are used to assemble the constituent elements of a story. They’re the product of intensely personal data mining by ‘neuro-marketers’ who use bio-indicators such as brain waves, eye scans, facial recognition software, skin sensors, and heart rate monitors to collect individual responses to political stimuli in real time [2]. Data collected from more commercial sources, such as Neilsen ratings, credit card records, and customer rewards cards, are goldmines for assembling detailed dossiers of consumer behaviour, and are becoming increasingly targeted by politicos, campaign managers, and party staffers [3]. Natasha Singer has exposed how private marketing technology firms like Axciom Corporation and Cambridge Analytica collect and analyse these data for the purposes of strategic political communication [4].

Although these practices are defended as innovative and anodyne avenues for market research, the literature has demonstrated that even seemingly innocuous personal information, such as ‘Likes’ from our Facebook profiles, can be used as powerful predictors of sensitive personal attributes. In fact, even one Facebook ‘Like’ has a non-negligible predictive capacity above baseline for identifying our gender, age, and personality traits [5].

This is critically important for the purposes of storytelling as it allows for targeted messages to be relayed to us based on how well they correspond to our personalities and consumer behaviours. For example, personality traits Openness and Conscientiousness have been demonstrated to have a strong correlation with liberalism and conservatism, respectively [6]. If strong predictors of personality traits, such as ‘Liking’ The Colbert Report on Facebook, are targeted and exploited by political actors, this may present an insidious threat to the free market of ideas, and the stories that animate them. This is because it allows for tailored messages to reach only those audiences primed to espouse it; in effect, this has potential for us to become political sycophants—ideologues existing in enclaves wherein only a narrow slice of political information is exposed to us.

These ideological messages can be thrust upon us through coded, or underhanded, means designed intentionally to exploit those innermost attributes and prejudices. Dog-whistle tactics have been long-standing in the political arena, but when combined with the data analytics of today we become presented with a new set of ethical problems to grapple with. Take the case of 2012’s Romney for President, a political action committee that produced racially-coded television advertisements for select white demographics in Ohio and Colorado. The ad producers leveraged demographic data—records mined and analysed by corporations like Acxiom—to subliminally play on the racial sentiments of the white working class, a demographic empirically demonstrated to respond to this sort of emotional appeal [7].

Given its strategic benefit, it stands to reason that political advertisers will only continue to become more stringent with whom they decide to target by employing increasingly invasive data collection methods. In doing so, the target audience will become so intently identified such that only those segments of the electorate that are naturally responsive to the message will be made aware of it at all.

The possibilities to this end are seemingly boundless. Rose McDermott et al. suggests that even our sense of smell has ideological and political correlates [8]. These too can be leveraged for more rigorous message-control: imagine a digital billboard that emits an attractive scent that only a precise demographic niche is perceptive to. Even the idiosyncrasies of one’s speaking habits can evoke a novel, positive response among political audiences [9]. As it turns out, even something as instinctive as casual speech is immutable.

These message-elements are ordered into the format of a story through the process of narrativization. The sheer quantitative complexity of big data on its own is not enough to assemble the various elements of a message into a cohesive and meaningful communique. There must be a qualitatively affecting narrative that entices the senses and emotions in order to turn mere ‘data’ into information—that is, to render it intelligible and meaningful.

The act of visualizing information is imperative to communicating effectively in the narrative form. It is no coincidence that cognitive scientists conceive of the human brain as a connectionist neural network that is innately configured to process symbols along spatial-visual lines [10].

The phrases “far left” and “reactionary right”, by this account, are not incidental terms. They attest to the mind’s propensity to draw clear spatial representations of the political.

Reductive as it may be, there is experiential merit in visualizing politics. Taking a conceptual model and reifying it in three-dimensional space, allowing it to live and breathe in a cognitively ‘natural’ symbolic order, is a powerful tool in enhancing how we simply experience politics.

The lynchpin of the Occupy movement’s message was their scathing opposition to the inequality of wealth in the United States. One of the main motivating factors that drew me to their rallies was the outrage I experienced upon seeing the infographics that portrayed the share of the national wealth concentrated among the top ninety-ninth percentile of income earners. This is a testament to the power of simple visual heuristics, images capable of framing an issue in a way that is evocative to the target audience.

Generally, this is the domain of ‘branding’. How political brands take form is important for the purposes of visual communication to the electorate—names, colours, and logos are essential for both remaining in, and drawing from, the public’s collective memory. For example, the green colours of the Reform Party were strategically chosen for its association with populism and the prairie spirit, and the Liberal Party’s red was originally selected for its historical roots in socialist and revolutionary politics. These colours, identifiers, and trademarks are deployed by political strategists in a way that not only familiarizes voters with the themes and characters of the story they seek to tell, but also attracts them to the implicit messages that each ‘brand’ has embedded within it.

This is akin to how commercial retailers market their products to consumers; in this way, the voter is treated more like a political consumer than a politically sophisticated voter. This notion that we associate implicit thematic elements from a political stimulus is essentially predicated upon the connectionist paradigm of the political brain. Ex uno, plures.

The visualization of political ‘brands’, and the messages they contain, are vitally important for informing our understanding of politics, as well as our behaviour in the political arena. The larger point, however, is that it serves as a strong example as to how political messaging is ‘heresthetically’ framed in a way that’s both pleasing and accessible to our sensibilities. It alludes to the fact that we, as voters, readily attach ourselves to tribalistic political units (i.e. parties, ideologies, movements, and brands) in order to simplify and heuristically engineer our political environment. Brands, in this way, are politically orienting forces.

The Conservative Party brand tells a reactionary story that diametrically opposes the attenuating forces of the political left; conversely, the New Democrat’s brand tells a proactive, or radical story in opposition to their right-wing counterparts. They mitigate the risk of decision fatigue by narrowing our range of political affiliation to one of only a few viable candidates composed of a collage of colours, slogans, and ideological tropes. Yet, the stories that political parties tell are orienting in a way that the Occupy movement’s never were—because they call for your vote. This is the course of action that is demanded of you in return for being provided the heuristic benefit of brand affiliation.

This is the ‘plot’ of the story that was sorely absent from my angst-ridden misadventures at St. James Park.

But all plots move deathward. It must be borne in mind that the privilege of branding extends beyond the control of the organizations and movements themselves: they can take on a life, message, and story of their own when in the hands of external actors.

Take, for example, Andrew MacDougall’s op-ed, which employs a number of tactics, explicit and implicit, that ‘brand’ both the Liberal and Conservative parties around their leadership personas [11]. In what is essentially a lesson in rhetorical heresthetics, the author paints a vivid picture of both party’s image. Justin Trudeau as the green, youthful, celebrity politician that resembles change and a new stylistic direction; Stephen Harper as an experienced, true-blue veteran that evokes stability, prudence, and phronesis, or “political wisdom”. More implicitly, MacDougall alludes to Trudeau’s brand as being an extension of his familial dynasty, a pedigree too illustrious for its inheritor to live up to.

Bleak imagery is invoked: a “sea of troubles” rising upon Canada’s shores; an animalistic Russian threat; a combative and tumultuous national milieu. And with this, a specific visual representation is brought to mind that frames the political context as one in which Trudeau is unprepared for. Harper, in turn, is lauded for his public policy track record, as MacDougall lists the various tropes of the Conservative Party platform: “lower taxes, a strong military, cracking down on crime, getting rid of the wasteful and ineffective gun registry and abolishing the Wheat Board”. In framing the choice in this way (that is, between the Liberals or Conservatives), prospect theory would position Trudeau in the domain of losses, or at best, the domain of probabilistic gain. Whereas Harper, by this account, represents a sure gain. In effect, this reduces the nuance of the debate to an easily discernable dichotomy—option A representing only a possibly beneficial outcome, while option B resembles the safe bet for the more risk averse.

MacDougall’s piece is less a partisan hit job than it is a representation of an effective political story. One that encapsulates the thematic elements of a narrative, evokes strong and suggestive imagery, identifies the central conflict, orients the audience, and presents a simple and reductive decision-making heuristic. Political messaging par excellence.

Like the call to arms of yesterday’s radicals, “We are the 99%”, the message is manufactured to circumscribe one’s response to it: either you’re within, or without. It is crudely reductive, binary, and dichotomous, and for as long as we maintain an adversarial political system this will remain an effective communicative strategy. It is the inevitable product of electoral and systemic complexity, and the fact that we have such cognitive shortcuts is its saving grace. Without them, we can become lost in the whirlwind of political mayhem; the natural confusion that arises from an overwhelming decision analysis that would demand of us more mental faculties than we’re willing to afford. This is the reason why we support Bernie Sanders for President, but not necessarily Bernie Sanders as president [11]. It’s the reason why we faithfully support our political darlings, even amid high-profile scandals [12]. And it’s the reason Obama couldn’t get his story straight [13].

McDougall’s article gets at the heart of how we make political decisions. Political heuristics are practical in their application as repellents of decision fatigue, identity insecurity, and moral confusion. To this end, politics is itself a heuristic game. To be sure, there is insidious potential for harm to a democratic sphere when these messages and heuristics are applied deceptively, or hyper-selectively to those carefully determined to be best suited for them. In a democracy, the enterprise of ideas and messages should remain open—and this is an important caveat to maintain.

However, it is equally important to be privy to the fact that our politics are determined by the heuristics made available to us. Contrary to folk theories of democracy, we don’t vote, or otherwise politically behave, according to rational maxims. The political sphere is ensnared by cognitive constraints shaped by language, symbols, visual cues, and messages that inflict low-resolution representations of ‘the political’ upon us.

It is incumbent upon the political participant to develop their own sophistication by navigating those symbols and heuristics that we expose ourselves to, and triage them in a way that makes sense to us. To convert them into ordered messages, parable-like and didactic, that mold into our social schemata. And yet they are unfinished and amorphous, as is the development of our political sophistication, as is the acuity of our political minds: when We are the 99% has lost its ring, we move on to other schema, other stories.

The Unfinished: Storytelling as Political Necessity

everyday Pity

He had been married eleven weeks and kept keenly aware of the Greater Good and the Bigger Picture. These were the linchpins of his 20-week Life Plan 20/20 Workbook he had followed near-verbatim since the fall. He had insisted on taking his marriage seriously, and this constituted the first of what he thought would be many serious postnuptial decisions.

His deep-down predilections were that of a boy’s, however, and his curiosity for the more illicit side of temptation ended up toying with lesser motivations.

On that eleventh week, he decided to stow away his half-smoked pack of cigarettes under his box spring before driving to the hardware store. It was there, in the parking lot, where he subdued his lungs with the smoke and sediment of what he decided would be his very last non-emergency cig.

He had kicked around the idea of the sacrament for twenty, maybe thirty seconds while tying his boots, in his coat room, minutes earlier. He enjoyed the cigarette and, feeling satisfied with the ritual, ashed the remains atop the potted plant, frozen, on display outside the automatic doors.

Tapping the slush from his boots, he wove through the columns of clearance shelves and display pyramids that lined the entrance, only stopping once to check the expiration date of the deceptively priced Value brand Small Dog: Complete Nutrition Dog Food formula which boasted a product code linked to a printable coupon that, to his limited knowledge, was uncalled for given its reduction to a seven kilo zipper bag.

Seeing as there was, in fact, no posted expiration date, he carried on toward the back where they housed the electronic equipment.

He realized he was still carrying the bag of dog food. Embarrassed, he put it down deviously among the swimming pool chemicals. For a moment, his cunning redeemed him.

He turned back around to grab a cart, then thought better of it. He didn’t need one, he thought.

At the rear of the store, he found a cabinet wedged between two tables. Each table held transparent gallon jugs with a generic white label spelling out its viscous fillings and its expiration.

VEGETABLE GLYCERIN USP 99.7% VEGAN AND KOSHER FRIENDLY BB 2019 MA 13.

The wall unit had pristine glass doors whose sheen was telling of the contents’ newness. The doors were padlocked, and an emboldened sign above the handles pictured a smiling sales rep.

A visibly pubescent sales rep came over and unlocked it after checking his ID. He helped him pick out a marked down Taiwanese device and a doubly more expensive kit of required ancillaries: e-juices, replacement coils, a sub-ohm tank, a regular tank intended for what was described to him as “throat hits”, and two jugs of vegetable glycerin.

He went back for the shopping cart. He used the self-service checkout and left.

A smoker was idling outside. The cherry burning between her middle and forefinger dour like a candlelight vigil for his ashed companion.

The pavement was freshly salted on Monday morning but its smell lingered even in the car, even in the driveway. It was there that he thought maybe it wasn’t the salt.

Lugging his things inside, he sat down on top the hood of his deep freezer. He kept it in the hallway because living space was sparse and its installation made for shorter grocery trips as the kitchen was still a-ways down the hall and carrying grocery bags becomes an odious experience when performed as drunk as he often liked to be when he bought groceries.

Even when he wasn’t drunk he found it made for a seat preferable even to the leather furniture his roommate’s parents had bought for the living room. He enjoyed the humming sound that it made, and how it would rattle against his hanging feet.

Continue reading “everyday Pity”

everyday Pity

In defense of: responsible government

Since I know you’ve been losing sleep over whether responsible government is a legitimate constitutional convention of Canadian parliament, I thought I’d take a minute to get to the bottom of it.

First, what it is:

Jennifer Smith (1999) posits responsible government (RG) as the organizing principle of several interlocking components that comprise the Westminster system of government—the electoral system, party discipline, democratic representation, adversarialism, majority rule, and a separation of constitutionally defined powers. As the institutional design of Parliament, responsible government confers sovereignty in the Queen and holds Her Majesty’s Government to account by requiring the confidence of the directly elected House. Through this mechanism, Parliament is assembled through direct lines of accountability.

If a vote of confidence is lost, then constitutional convention dictates that the Prime Minister must request the Governor General to dissolve parliament and issue the writ of election. In exercising these prerogative powers of the Crown, the primacy of the Queen is respected as the seat of sovereign authority. The powers of the Crown are executed on the advice of the Prime Minister (PM), whose power is limited by their support in the House.

Per Smith, the central convention of RG is the requirement that the government maintain the confidence of the lower chamber, which thereby “enables the voters to easily identify the political players who are responsible for the public-policy agenda of the day and to punish and reward these players at the next general election (p. 399). The ability to identify these actors, and their ability to work cohesively in the national interest, relies upon a degree of partisanship in the form of party discipline (p. 405). In this respect, partisanship resolves the tension between competing popular conceptions of representation that hold parliamentarians to act as both local-level delegates and national-level representatives (p. 405).

Next, its criticisms:

Several perceived flaws are found in the current system. Savoie (1999) found that RG as an accountability mechanism has failed to prevent the PM from consolidating power within his circle of courtiers such that both Cabinet and Parliament are increasingly bypassed in the policy-making and agenda-setting processes (p. 98). According to Docherty (2014), an excess of confidence votes has caused party discipline to interfere with RG’s function of representing the electorate (pp. 154,168). Forsey (2009) censures the Crown’s uncritical allegiance to the advice of the Prime Minister in dissolving and proroguing Parliament.
Bearing these issues in mind, Peter Aucoin et al. (2011) challenge Smith by essentially positing a reverse conception of RG that sees it as a means to parliamentary democracy rather than an organizational end in itself (p. 212). They see the failures of RG as being representative of institutional deficiencies around flimsy constitutional conventions and sweeping executive powers invulnerable to democratic checks from the House.

Now, let’s look at why reform efforts have failed:

Aucoin et al. (2011) put forth a series of radical reform proposals that undermine the rules and principles of RG. These include constitutional amendments requiring the consent of two-thirds of the House to prorogue Parliament, and a “constructive non-confidence procedure” that limits the incidence of confidence motions and, in turn, reducing party discipline (p. 225). As noble as ‘democratizing’ appears, these proposals fail to account for the fact that sovereignty, under RG, rests with the Crown, who delegate the attendant responsibilities not to Parliament but to her officers in the Queen’s Privy Council. Reform efforts of this kind privilege a delegative model of representation that demands agency and local-level representation from MPs, however this interferes with RG’s constitutional function—to ensure stability, predictability, clear accountability, and the maintenance of the national interest. 

Ultimately, this embraces a theory of representation essential to Edmund Burke’s trustee model whereby legislators are sufficiently free to exercise their will with the public interest in mind, rather than their local constituency. This is in stark contrast to James Madison’s republican-inspired delegative model that sees representatives as local-level delegates tasked with expressing the will of their community. Where you align yourself among these two theories will inextricably guide your placement in the larger debate on responsible government.

As Smith advises, we are due to correct perceived democratic deficits but we ought to remain “cautious” by providing reasonable checks that are consistent with RG. Smith suggests an overhaul of our electoral system to a form of proportional representation as a means of inhibiting majority governments and restoring greater agency in the House, without thwarting the ordering principle from which sovereignty and accountability emanate. To suggest that the principle of responsible government itself can be reformed is to suggest that one lacks a full appreciation of its function.

Sources:

Jennifer Smith (1999) “Democracy and the Canadian House of Commons at the Millenium”, Canadian Public Administration, 42(4): 398-421

Peter Aucoin, Mark Jarvis, and Lori Turnbull (2011) Democratizing the Constitution: Reforming Responsible Government. Toronto: Emond Montgomery Publications.

Donald Savoie (2009) “Power at the Apex: Executive Dominance” in Canadian Politics (6th ed.) by James Bickerton.

In defense of: responsible government

You can thank Russia for nuclear security in the Trump era

On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Donald Trump vowed to rescind the Iran nuclear deal once in office. But to the dismay of President-elect Donald Trump, the agreement is playing out exactly as planned.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) came into force in January. With the lifting of international sanctions, Tehran has a renewed spirit for enterprise, evidenced by their rapid global economic reintegration.

In September, the U.S. Treasury approved Boeing’s sale of 80 passenger jets to Iran’s national airline worth up to $25 billion. Earlier this month, French oil giant Total S.A. agreed to a gas development deal with Iran, who boasts the world’s largest natural gas reserves. French automaker PSA Peugot Citreon have come to terms to manufacture vehicles in Tehran. Today, Canada’s Bombardier Inc. are in talks with Iran Air, looking to compete with Boeing for additional contracts to replace Iran’s aging civil aviation fleet.

Perhaps more important to Trump’s incoming foreign policy team is Russia, who’ve sold their S-300 anti-aircraft missile system to the Islamic Republic’s Air Defense Force. The Kremlin has a billion-dollar energy deal to build offshore drilling rigs in the Persian Gulf. As a part of their nascent 5-year strategic cooperation agreement, they’ve formed a Joint Economic Commission to work toward free trade and energy partnership.

With a Republican Congress and Trump in the White House, all signs point to a toughened strategy of resolve with Iran. And as the world broods over the potential security implications, many are amiss in their assessment of Russia’s role as a key attenuating force.

If President Trump wants to maintain cool heads between Washington and the Kremlin, this will require his acquiescence to Russian demands on Iran, who is lining up to be a strong potential defense and energy partner.

On Monday, Trump spoke with Putin and agreed to a joint effort to combat international terrorism and end the conflict in Syria. Trump has announced he will withdraw support for the Syrian rebel groups once gaining office, in a move sympathetic to the Kremlin-backed Bashar al-Assad regime. If he truly wants to cooperate on mutual ground with Putin on Syria, Trump will have to concede his hardline stance on Iran.

Mr. Trump knows how to negotiate, and renegotiate, trade agreements but he doesn’t know the more complicated world of international politics. Now is the time for him to stop blowing smoke and start doubling back on hyperbolic campaign promises.

Speaking to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee 2016 Policy Conference in March, Trump promised to scrap the deal and “hold Iran totally accountable” for their links to designated terrorist organizations. Israel has rallied behind Trump’s calls for renegotiating but one should hope that Trump’s sensibilities for business and security ought to have greater effect on his policy.

During the first presidential debate, Trump was pressed on what strategy could substitute the JCPOA. He couldn’t answer. There is simply no viable alternative short of regional instability and severed relations with major global powers. Trump does not want to invade Iran. Neither does he want to ruin his opportunity for a detente with Russia, and an expedient end to the crisis in Syria.

Even if he does intend to throw out the deal he likely won’t be able to get away with it on his own. The JCPOA was negotiated and framed as a political agreement between Iran, Germany, and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. This doesn’t leave room for Trump to unilaterally reimpose sanctions without being subject to a potential veto by other signatories like Russia or France, who have clear material interests in keeping the deal alive.

The largely ignored player in this discussion is Russia. This is because even if the reasons for keeping trade channels open with Iran are insufficient, keeping diplomatic ties with Moscow is too strategically compelling with respect to Syria and regional security interests. The imminent threat of Putin’s veto wouldn’t help either.

The picture will become more clear as Trump announces his foreign policy team in the coming weeks. Unfortunately, any attempt to wrap your head around a coherent Trump foreign policy doctrine is difficult until then.

Though suffice it to say, we can expect a moderate Trump foreign policy with respect to Iran.

It’s becoming redundant to say that we can’t trust Donald Trump’s campaign promises. They are ignorant to the complex realities of international security, and ripe with the hyperbole of a seasoned politician. The greatest trick Trump played was convincing us he wasn’t one.

You can thank Russia for nuclear security in the Trump era